{"id":17733,"date":"2025-02-27T13:21:28","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T10:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/africasustainabilitymatters.com\/?p=17733"},"modified":"2026-01-11T05:31:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T05:31:49","slug":"africa-on-the-brink-1-5c-climate-threshold-to-be-breached-by-2040-even-with-low-emissions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rayscohosting.best\/ASM\/2025\/02\/27\/africa-on-the-brink-1-5c-climate-threshold-to-be-breached-by-2040-even-with-low-emissions\/","title":{"rendered":"Africa on the brink: 1.5\u00b0C climate threshold to be breached by 2040, even with low emissions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Africa, a continent that contributes less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, is set to bear the brunt of climate change sooner than expected. A new study published in CABI Reviews<\/a> warns that all five subregions of Africa will surpass the 1.5\u00b0C warming threshold by 2040\u2014even under the most optimistic low-emission scenarios. This looming crisis underscores the urgent need for a “just transition” in African agriculture, ensuring sustainability while safeguarding livelihoods.<\/p>\n

Researchers from the University of Zimbabwe<\/a> and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI)<\/a> in Kenya conducted an extensive literature review to develop a framework for Africa\u2019s transition to a climate-resilient agricultural future. Their findings are alarming: climate hazards are set to intensify, disproportionately affecting communities that depend on climate-sensitive agriculture.<\/p>\n

Despite the continent’s minimal contribution to global emissions, Africa faces outsized consequences, including food insecurity, economic instability, and amplified social injustices. Gender disparities, employment challenges, and deep-seated inequalities are all expected to worsen under escalating climate pressures.<\/p>\n

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Lead author Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice Chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe, warns that existing and planned adaptation strategies are insufficient. “African agriculture-based livelihoods will be the most affected due to their reliance on climate-sensitive practices and limited adaptive capacity,” he explains. “Losses and damages are already significant, and they will only increase as climate hazards intensify.”<\/p>\n

To counter this, the researchers advocate for a just transition pathway\u2014a roadmap for transforming African agriculture into a low-emission, climate-resilient system. This transition must prioritize fairness, ensuring that no one is left behind as countries pivot to sustainable farming practices<\/p>\n

According to the study, Africa\u2019s agricultural transformation must focus on climate-proofing key systems:<\/p>\n